Should I cut or bulk first?

This one gets overthought. There is a simple rule of thumb, and body fat is the input that decides it.

For most people I use a threshold. Men above roughly 20 percent body fat, and women above roughly 30, are usually better served cutting first. Below that, you have room to run a lean bulk or a recomp. In the example above, a man estimated at 23 percent lands on the cut-first side of the line, though not by much: a few inches off the waist and the answer changes.

Why start with the cut when you are carrying more fat: a bulk on top of higher body fat mostly adds more fat, since your body is already less primed to partition calories toward muscle. Trimming down first improves how you look now, sets up a cleaner run at building later, and is honestly better motivation because you see change faster.

The caveat, and it is a big one for beginners: if you are new to training, you may not have to choose at all. Beginners can often recomp, building muscle and losing fat at the same time, which sidesteps the whole question for the first several months.

Do not let this decision stall you. Both directions work, and your first year of consistent training matters far more than whether you opened with a small deficit or a small surplus.

Estimate your body fat in the tool with a tape measure to see which side of the line you are on.